The assumption of a “red wave” was created by a mixture of historical and political conditions: First, the president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in his first midterm election. Second, Biden’s approval ratings were underwater. Third, inflation is at a longtime high. And fourth, Democrats were defending more vulnerable seats than Republicans.
Feeding the expectations were the polls, which showed movement toward Republicans late in the campaign. Nationally, the polls actually had a good night. Most polls in the most contentious states said it was going to be close. And boy, was it.
Here in Washington, the polls told a different story. Our January poll hinted at a potential
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